WTO 2026 outlook: trade to grow 3.9%

What the WTO says

The World Trade Organization (WTO) published its trade forecasts on 8 October 2026. Merchandise trade volume will grow 3.9% in 2026, against 1.9% in the March forecast, and 4.1% in 2027.

Commercial services trade goes the other way: it will grow 3.3% in 2026, below the previous 4.8%, and rebound to 6.4% in 2027. World GDP will grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

In the first half of 2026 merchandise volume rose 3.5%, above expectations. Global container throughput rose 3.9% year to date through July.

What it means for a small business exporting from Spain

Europe is the natural market for a Spanish company, and it is where the WTO expects the least movement: European imports would grow 0.5% in 2026. That does not mean you can sell less. It means winning share there requires taking it from another supplier.

Imports grow most in Asia (9.5%), Africa (8.9%) and the CIS (8.8%). That is where the average buyer is increasing volume. In North America imports rise only 1.4%, although it is a very large destination.

These figures are regional aggregates. Within each region some countries rise and others fall, and each product has its own demand. The forecast tells you where to look first. It does not choose the market.

What drives growth and what threatens it

The WTO attributes the rise mainly to goods linked to artificial intelligence, such as semiconductors and servers. This group explains 47% of merchandise trade growth and its trade rose 67% year on year.

The main risk is the Middle East conflict, through higher energy prices, disrupted transport routes and weaker travel demand. The region's crude oil exports fell about 24% in the first half and its liquefied natural gas exports about 47%.

For an exporter of a non-technology product, the relevant point is indirect: growth is concentrated in one group of goods, and the rest of trade grows less than the average. Do not extrapolate the global figure to your tariff line.

How to use the forecast to prioritise markets

1. 01

   Start from your product, not the region

   Look at imports of your tariff line in each country, not the regional average.

2. 02

   Pick three or four candidates

   Include one nearby market and one or two from regions where demand is growing.

3. 03

   Check tariffs and requirements

   A growing market with barriers you cannot meet is not a real opportunity.

4. 04

   Check the competition

   See who supplies that market today and at what price before setting yours.

5. 05

   Test with a small shipment

   Validate with a first order and review the forecast every six months, because the WTO updates it.

How Exporta helps you

With the Exporta market reports you can see, by country and product, tariffs, demand and competition, and so bring the WTO's regional forecast down to your own tariff line.

Then Find customers gives you importers and distributors in your sector with the person who decides, and the CRM lets you write to them from your own email. Xport, the Exporta assistant, helps you through that path.