How to read UN Comtrade trade data to choose a market

What's inside

Each row of Comtrade is a declaration: a country (the declarant) says how much it imported or exported of a product (the code) from or to another country (the partner) in a period, in dollars and, when the country reports it, in kilos.

Data is published at chapter (two digits), heading (four digits) and subheading (six digits) level of the Harmonized System. The finer the code, the closer to your product and the more gaps in the series: not all countries publish all subheadings every year.

Why the figures don't match

If you look at what Germany declares it imported from Spain and what Spain declares it exported to Germany, the numbers don't match. Imports are normally valued with freight and insurance included (CIF) and exports without them (FOB); the country of origin and the country of consignment are not always the same; and goods that leave in December may arrive in January.

For choosing a market, the useful figure is the one declared by the importer: they are the ones who say what enters their country and where from. Exports declared by origin are useful for seeing your country's share of that market.

The period matters as much as the figure

Countries declare with a delay, and some more than others. At any given time, the last complete year available for one country may be the previous year and for another two years ago. Comparing countries with different periods is like comparing two photos taken at different times.

That's why every imports table must have the period in the header, and that's why in Exporta.ai each Comtrade data point is shown with the year it corresponds to. Data without a period is not data.

From table to decision

A country that imports a lot of your heading is a market with demand, not necessarily an open market for you: you need to cross-reference it with the tariff you would pay, entry requirements and who already supplies that market. If three countries account for 80% of imports, entering means displacing someone; if the share is broad, there is room for another supplier.

Also look at the trend: a market growing for two consecutive years absorbs new suppliers; one that is falling expels them. And compare the value with volume when the country declares kilos: the average price per kilo tells you whether that market buys products in your range or another.

This is the logic that Exporta.ai's market analysis applies: real demand by code, trend, average price, tariff and requirements, to rank countries and tell you which ones to start with.

Frequently asked questions